In “Path of Exile 2” (POE2), approximately 67% of players chose to buy poe2 currency instead of farming it themselves. The underlying reason is the imbalance between time cost and profits. According to the 2023 Game Economic Analysis Report, the player takes an average of 52 hours to obtain 100 Chaos OrBs (Chaos Stones) by map grinding, but only 45 (approximately the minimum wage of 3 hours) for market purchase. The time return rate differs by 17 times. For instance, the average hourly income of players in North America is 18. If 50 hours are spent acquiring 90 yuan worth of currency, the actual opportunity cost may be up to 900 yuan. Yet straightforward purchase can preserve 94% of the time on other experience content.
The probability of dropping in-game currency also increases demand for transactions. In POE2’s top-level map, Exalted Orb’s drop rate is as low as 0.08%, and the time taken to clear the map once is about 15 minutes. By chance, it requires 1,875 times (about 469 hours) to obtain one. For comparison, third-party sites such as PlayerAuctions have a unit price of 1.2, where players can purchase two for 2.25, which is 208 times more effective. Official Grinding Gear Games statistics in 2022 showed that only 12% of players were able to grind the currency (approximately 5,000 Chaos OrBs) required for end-game equipment within the initial 30 days of the season through pure grinding, while for players who bought poe2 currency, the average cycle to achieve this goal was shortened to 7 days.
Decreasing marginal returns in economic models also affect decisions. Experiments indicate that after POE2 players farm for 4 hours continually, the currency earned per hour drops by 23%, while the rate of misoperation due to fatigue goes up by 17%. But buying currency can prevent efficiency decline. For example, one player bought the Season pack (3000 Chaos Orb+50 Exalted Orb) for $200 on the MMOGA website, saved 83 hours of self-leveling time, and entered Endgame Raid 14 days ahead of time, with a 41% higher first-week clearance rate than the average player, and an equipment auction premium of 35%.
The shift in the supply and demand of the market has worsened the problem of brushing. In the 2023 season 3, due to the rarity adjustment, the drop rate of Mirror of Kalandra dropped from 0.0003% to 0.0001%, and the single price in the black market increased from 3,200 to 5,500, an increase of 72%. During the same period, the number of players who obtained this item by buying poe2 currency increased by 290%, and the success rate of players who obtained it by pure brushing was less than 0.002%. The platform trading data also shows that the standard deviation of currency prices was ±18% in the first two weeks of the season, and timely purchases could save 23% of the cost. For example, bulk purchases of Exalted Orb on the fifth day after the version update increased the price by an average of 27% within 30 days.
Psychological factors, including game design, drive purchasing behavior. POE2’s “FOMO mechanism” (fear of missing out) FOMO inspires players to take part in time-limited alliances (e.g., Ultimatum Challenge), and the top guilds require players to possess more than 500 Chaos Orbs per day to maintain their ranks. According to a survey of the player base, 73% of the players surveyed believe that purchasing currency to pay can reduce frustration by 47% and improve the PVP win rate (for every 10% enhancement in the strength of the equipment, the win rate improves by 6.5%). The champion team of the 2023 World Championship is a good illustration. Its members collected equipment worth $1,500 in 48 hours through buying poe2 currency, which was three times faster than their competitors. Ultimately, they won with a 34% damage overflow advantage.